There are many climatologists on our planet, some of them are truly standing out. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, professor at UCL in Belgium, and Vice-chair of the IPCC, definitely belongs to those few. This is because he combines scientific authority and rationalism with a human heart of compassion and understanding for our world. I asked Prof. Ypersele about his opinion on the recent G8 decision to adopt 2ºC as the maximum for average global warming.

Prof. van Ypersele, you  have witnessed the climate change debate since a long time. Now, finally, the G8 officially announced that they accept 2ºC as a target for maximal global warming. Many people are breathing a big sigh of relief, and believe that we finally are on the right track. Are we?

Well, it is interesting to see the G8 recognizes that the target set by the European Union 13 years ago (Council of European Ministers, June 1996) has wide support. It is an important step in the right direction, even if science (and climate) has significantly evolved since 1996. The last IPCC assessment report (2007) has shown that the risks to a number of natural and human systems were assessed to be significantly higher for a 2°C global warming than they were assessed in the previous IPCC assessment (2001). If the same European ministers who decided to consider a warming above 2°C as dangerous were to revisit their decision today using the same criteria,  they would very likely have to conclude, on the basis of the latest IPCC report, that the threshold would have to be lower than 2°C by about half a degree. So, we are on a better track than previously, but there is still a long way to go. [...]

Arctic sea-ice minimum 2007

Everybody knows that the sea-ice in the Arctic is melting. Now a new study shows just how severly this melting is proceeding.

2007 was the year where Arctic sea-ice gave us a scary example for what we have found true since then: that the IPCC report was not just describing true changes in our climatic system, but that these changes are often faster than some of the worst case scenarios of the climate models. The extent of the Arctic sea-ice had shrunk so much, that for the first time in human memory the Northwest passage was navigable (see Fig. 1).

If melting continues like that, then - so scientists fear - the summer Arctic sea-ice could be completely gone within 20 to 30 years; the tipping point for a complete melting of Arctic sea-ice in the summer even might have been crossed already (Lenton 2009). [...]

Finally, the G8 has come to its senses in terms of climate change action. Now we need to make sure they know what needs to be done.

Often our work on climate change seemed like the attempt of a mom trying to explain to her child that it must not use her fingers to eat spaghetti -being heard but definitely not being taken seriously. Kids often only listen when they are afraid to lose their desert. Or they finally listen after strenuous years of nagging. At the latest at their graduation party. Now that’s a relief.

It seems quite the same with politicians; except that they sometimes never graduate. For how long have politicians been warned that inaction will lead to a catastrophe of a global scale with unimaginable consequences? We’ve nagged and pleaded, with mostly relatively little effect.

Now, finally, the G8 will adopt the 2°C limit of global warming - accepting the science that tells us that a warming by more than by 2°C from pre-industrial times will likely cause a passing of tipping points. [...]

Fig. 1. Thawing permafrost. Image credit – Edward A.G.Schuur, University of Florida

Permafrost is the a subject in the climate change debate I have tried to not think about too much. It is just too scary to think about the vast amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils, ready to be released if global temperatures keep rising. But it seems to be time to finally take a closer look at what is happening in the most northern areas of our planet.

Areas like the northern parts of Siberia, Alaska, or Canada are cold enough that most parts of the ground are frozen - that is why it is called “permafrost” (Fig. 1). Only the uppermost layer is thawing in the summer, and gives room for plants to grow. This active layer can be 0.6 to 4 m thick. Even though some of the plant material decomposes, quite a bit of it does not. This is because the active layer is frozen during large parts of the year; and microbial processes that decompose organic material are significantly slowed down at low temperatures - the soil acts like a freezer for organic material.

When air temperature increases, then of course the soil warms as well: the active layer will stay unfrozen for a longer period of time during the year, and the deeper, permanently frozen area will start to thaw. At the same time, warmer temperatures increase microbial activity. Microbial activity, in turn, produces its own heat. With that, the decomposition of organic materials in the soil will proceed not only over a larger time span and over a larger area, but also at an accelerated rate. This positive feedback loop will accelerate with further warming, and could ultimately trigger an “irreversible process of thawing.” [...]

Yesterday evening, Dr. James Hansen, director of the NASA Institut of Space Studies, together with 29 others, got arrested when trespassing onto land in West Virginia that is mined for coal. Coal is the most important reason for the fast increase of CO2 in our atmosphere, and thus for the warming of our planet.

What news! Finally Dr. Hansen managed to get arrested. He had tried before, when blocking a coal fired power plant in D.C. together with hundreds of other protestors; but the police did not dare to touch them. This time they did - luckily!

This will send a powerful message around the world: people, do something more than you have done so far! Peaceful demonstrations, direct interference with the coal industry, a massive build-up of protest and direct involvement of every single citizen needs to be the consequence of the political process that is too slow to be effective. It also sends out an important mesage to scientists: speak up!!

What will YOU say when your kids ask you what you did to prevent the catatstrophe they will live with? “I informed myself”, “I bought an energy saving fridge”, “”I used my bike more frequently”, “I published papers in scientific journals”…those actions are not enough to give a satisfying answer to your kids.

The world got rich, fat, lazy, short-sighted and egozentric (ok, except for those who aren’t). Get up, world, wake up from your media-induced slumber, and do something more powerful, more effective than ever before!

Maiken Winter

Source: DotEarth

Bill (second to the right) with 350's Jeremy Osborn (right), and the directors of Green City Munich and Green City Energy

A day in Munich with Bill McKibben, author, environmentalist, and founder of 350.org - a homage to one of the most inspiring people of the world

Trying to organize a global movement is tough: traveling to places that hardly anybody has ever seen, such a Tibet, meeting fascinating people all over the world, getting to experience local food and culture,…those climate activists surely have a hard life! And then, jetting around the world, spewing out tons of CO2, they claim to help save ourselves from global climate change. Rediculous.

Is it?

Well, go ahead and spend just 1 day with one of the most active and dedicated climate activists of the world: Bill McKibben, author and environmentalist from Vermont, USA, and initiator of 350.org. [...]

The Green10, 10 environmental NGOs that score the performance of the European Commission, gave the Barroso commission an average score of 4.4 out of 10 points. But more consistency of judgement is needed.

Interesting was the score that the EU commission received for climate and energy policies. Even though the report mentions that a 20% emissions reduction is “inconsistent with the EU objective” of staying beneath an average global warming of 2°C, and even though it is not clear how to monitor the proposed increase in energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 (the famous 20/20/20 goal), the Green10 gave a score of 7/10 on the ECs climate policy.

For energy policy, the Green10 was less lenient, and gave the EC a score of 6/10. But whereas the 20% emissions target was critizised in the climate section, in the energy section the Green10 wrote: “The most remarkable achievement of this Commission was its binding 20% renewable energy target for 2020. Its adoption in EU law marks an important step for the development of clean energy.” [...]

(c) Gary Braasch Photography

Gary Braasch’s book “Earth under Fire” visualizes impressively the urgency of effective action, i.e. for the need  of renewable energies and increased energy efficiencies. A book that should be translated into every language!

An Interview with Zinta Lundborg, re-posted from http://www.bloomberg.com

In one photo, flood-plagued Bangladeshis crowd onto a speck of road surrounded by rising water. Another image gives an aerial view of Florida’s Delray Beach, where luxury high-rise buildings cluster on a thin strip of eroding sand.

Gary Braasch, an award-winning environmental photojournalist, captured those shots and their embedded warning of global catastrophe. His book “Earth Under Fire: How Global Warming Is Changing the World” combines field experience, scientific reporting and stunning pictures of what’s already happening as the planet warms. An updated version of the 2007 edition has been issued by the University of California Press. [...]

The conference in Essen made it clear: We need a Great Transformation to ensure that we will avoid climate catastrophe.  This transformation is greater than one might have imagined. Because this transformation includes all aspects of our lives:

Technology – we need to change the entire hardwiring of our societies, changing from fossil energy sources to renewable energies, from inefficient to high-efficient technologies.

Institutions – we need to reformulate our understanding of society as not just a market place, but as a cosmopolitan group of human beings living together on one fragile earth. Our institutions, from economy to government need to be based on sustainability, equity, and mutual trust.

Life style – We urgently need to “power down”, using less energy and resources from our earth and ourselves; instead, we need to focus more on values that can make us happy in a sustainable and long-lasting way, such as friendship and the enjoyment of nature.

Our world view – We need to understand ourselves as a globally connected community, with everybody having influence on the lives of others in the world.

more… [...]

Conference in Essen on The Great Transformation

By now it is obvious for most informed people that climate change is an extremely urgent issue that we need to address immediately to avoid irreversible changes to our climate system that will be devastating to many people living on our planet. And we know that we have the technologies to transfer our energy system into a low-carbon system within this century. How come that we still don’t act effectively? How come we keep falling further and further behind, with climate change proceeding faster than expected? How come the solutions offered by politicians so far don’t even come close to the urgency of the matter?

One major problem is that we still do not have a clear idea how to implement the great transformation in our social systems. How can we move people to action? While we are debating the science and technology, there is very little discourse about the fact that climate change requires a massive social change in the order of the industrial revolution; but not in the time frame of a century – as Prof. Schellnhuber pointed out - but in the order of decades. For Prof. Dixon from the University of Waterloo it is clear that the solutions to climate change will reside largely on the level of social change.

It is this problem that is being discussed in Essen during the next 2 days by experts in climate science, social sciences, and economy. The Mercator Foundation invited to a conference, called The Great Transformation: Climate change as cultural change. In a series of presentations and panel discussions the ca 450 participants from all over the world will try to get a better grip on questions like: Which social changes are needed to be able to implement effective climate policies? How do we best foster behavioral changes? It is high time to break away from conceptual discussions and start practical changes. But how?

One point was clear on the first evening: Experts need to reach out more, and more understandably, to the general public. But I wonder how experts can increase their involvement in public education without losing their credibility by fellow peers? Public outreach takes time and energy away from publishing and writing grants – and those are the main parameters by which scientists are judged today. In order for social change to be enhanced by experts, we not only need to transform the society out there, but also the society within the group of experts – changing our value system, and promoting outreach even though it will reduce our publication record. It is time to not only talk about the world outside from us, but also within.

John Schellnhuber said: “We need a new contract between science and society.” How exactly that contract will look like, and how we can implement it, will hopefully get clearer during the conference.

Maiken Winter