A talk by Jim Hansen and coworkers on the role of non-CO2 pollutants, given at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, sounds yet again optimistic that we can avoid climate destabilization. Non CO2 forcings take a surprisingly large part in the total amount of climate forcings, but they can be reduced with appropriate policies. The main problem remains to be CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Therefore, Jim Hansen again calls for strict and drastic policies to drastically reduce CO2 emissions, especially by quickly moving away from coal-fired power plants that cannot sequester CO2.

We note that it will be exceedingly difficult to determine the aerosol climate forcing relative to pre-industrial climate.  However, for policy purposes it may be sufficient to start with the present situation and consider climate forcing changes relative to today.  The planet’s present energy imbalance, at least to first order, determines the change of climate forcings needed to stabilize climate.  Climate models, using typical presumed scenarios of climate forcings for the past century, suggest that the planet should be out of energy balance by +0.75 ± 0.25 W/m2, but observations of ocean heat content change (averaged over the 11-year solar cycle) suggest an imbalance of only +0.5 ± 0.25 W/m2 (absorbed solar energy exceeding heat radiation to space). (more…)

Das Risiko schwerer Klimafolgen nimmt deutlich zu, wenn die globale Durchschnittstemperatur nur geringfügig weiter ansteigt. Ein internationales Forscherteam hat die fünf so genannten begründeten Klimasorgen aus dem dritten Sachstandsbericht des Weltklimarates von 2001 neu bewertet und die Risikozunahme bei fortschreitender Erwärmung grafisch dargestellt. Die Grenze zum gefährlichen Klimawandel fkönnte rüher überschritten werden, als bislang angenommen, aber ambitionierter Klimaschutz kann die Risiken minimieren.

„Wir müssen die Risiken negativer Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Mensch und Natur heute höher einschätzen als noch vor einigen Jahren“, sagt Hans-Martin Füssel vom Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK). Die Risiken nehmen bereits bei einer geringen weiteren Erwärmung über das Niveau von 1990 deutlich zu. Es zeigt sich, dass viele Ökosysteme, wie tropische Korallenriffe, empfindlicher auf die globale Erwärmung und den Anstieg der Kohlendioxid-Konzentration reagieren als noch im dritten Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) aus dem Jahr 2001 angenommen. Auch extreme Wetterereignisse wie Dürreperioden, Hitzewellen oder tropische Wirbelstürme treten heute häufiger und mit größeren Folgeschäden auf, als noch zu Beginn dieses Jahrzehnts vermutet worden war.

Der Treibhausgas-Ausstoß und der beobachtete globale Temperaturanstieg in den vergangenen Jahren liegen im oberen Bereich der Prognosen des IPCC (Rahmstorf et al., 2007, pdf). „Wenn die damit verbundenen Risiken höher zu bewerten sind, ist auch die Dringlichkeit größer, den Treibhausgas-Ausstoß zu verringern und besonders betroffene Regionen bei der Bewältigung der nicht mehr vermeidbaren Folgen des Klimawandels zu unterstützen“, folgert Füssel. Dies sei auch eine Frage der Gerechtigkeit, da viele der Länder mit dem geringsten Ausstoß von Treibhausgasen besonders stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein werden.

Bitte lesen Sie den vollständigen Text hier.

Quelle: Potsdamer Institut für Klimafolgenforschung

At a recent conference in Berlin, many people spoke in support of a controversial technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS).  Did we lose all those CCS supporters to the coal industry, or could there be good reason for their support of CCS?

Let me start with a disclosure: I have been trained by former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore to give presentations on climate change as part of The Climate Project, and am a passionate supporter of 350. Consequently, I strongly believe that one of the most important actions that the world needs to take is to stop the burning of coal in power plants that are not equipped with CCS. And because CCS technology is a far way from being economically viable, I viewed CCS as just an excuse to keep building new coal-fired power plants - with the empty promise that at some later point in time those plants will be equipped with CCS.

For those who are new to the term CCS: it is a method that captures CO2 before, during, or after the burning of organic material. (more…)

By Peter Montague from Rachel’s Democracy and Health News

A detailed new report from Stanford University reviews and ranks major energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution deaths, and energy security. This study examines 10 electric power sources and two liquid fuel options, comparing them by 11 different criteria. The study concludes that ethanol, nuclear, and coal-with- carbon-storage (CCS) are dirty, inefficient, and wasteful compared to wind, direct sunlight, geothermal and ocean energy. These cleaner, inexhaustible sources could eliminate global warming gases, give us energy security and meet the nation’s (and the world’s) energy needs forever, the study concludes. The report is available now online with extensive supplementary materials, and will soon appear in the journal Energy & Environmental Solutions. The author is Mark Z. Jacobson, director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program at Stanford in Palo Alto, Calif.

The report assumes that all U.S. gasoline-powered vehicles will shift entirely to electric power or ethanol fuel, and it then compares 10 ways of generating the necessary electricity and two ways of making ethanol fuel (basically, from corn or cellulose). Each of these 12 options is then evaluated against 11 different criteria and a final ranking is calculated. (more…)

Wood is one of the oldest construction materials, and it is experiencing an unprecedented renaissance in Germany. A low carbon footprint during construction, affordable material costs and an excellent energy efficiency make wooden houses a major champion in the new green consumer market. An interesting player in the wood house business is the Haas Group, a company which is known among German consumers for its prefabricated houses. The clou: each house comes packaged with a built-in renewable energy system.

The Haas Group has been active in the prefab home building business since the 1970s. In 2002, the company began offerning prefab houses with alternative energy solutions, starting with an integrated pellet heating systems. The system has become a standard offering by now and is enjoying great popularity especially in the South of Germany, which has ample wood pellet resources. Two years later, Haas offered an additional renewable energy option to house buyers, geothermal heat pumps. The deal included the consultation, the planning process, drilling and installation of the system complete with the (in Germany often extensive) paperwork. The company’s latest offer is the “Plus Energy House”, a solar-powered home which generates more revenue through power production than is needed to cover heating costs. (more…)

Oil and Gas Seen to Have Lesser Effect

Satellite imagery shows where carbon dioxide is being emitted or absorbed, measured here in 2003. Reds show sources; blues, absorption. Courtesy, NASA.

An ongoing rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels might be kept below harmful levels if emissions from coal are phased out within the next few decades, say researchers. They say that less plentiful oil and gas should be used sparingly as well, but that far greater supplies of coal mean that it must be the main target of reductions. Their study appears in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles. (more…)

Die Gerichtsaussage von Dr. James Hansen, gefolgt von einem Freispruch der angeklagten Greenpeace Aktivisten, ist ein wichtiger Erfolg für alle Klimaschützer. Unten die vollständige Version im original von Jim Hansen.

Good news from the UK: the Kingsnorth Six were acquitted by a Crown Court jury.  They were members of a group of 23 Greenpeace volunteers who had attempted to shut down the Kingsnorth coal-fired power plant, specifically the six were the ones painting the smokestack with “Gordon Bin It” when interrupted by the police.  Their defense was ‘lawful excuse’, that they were protecting property of greater value (the Earth!) from the impact of climate change.  We will need our Mercedes-driving lawyer friends to tell us if the verdict has greater significance — but the jurors were common people, not politicians.  It was an impressive show — judge and lawyers with their white wigs — hopefully it has an impact. (more…)

Sometimes one has to wonder about the sanity of our limited human brain….(MW).

Oil and Gas Projects in Western Amazon Threaten Biodiversity and Indigenous Peoples. The western Amazon, home to the most biodiverse and intact rainforest left on Earth, may soon be covered with oil rigs and pipelines.

According to a new study, over 180 oil and gas “blocks” – areas zoned for exploration and development – now cover the megadiverse western Amazon, which includes Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and western Brazil. These oil and gas blocks stretch over 688,000 km2 (170 million acres), a vast area nearly the size of Texas. (more…)

Der Klimawandel verändert die Lebensbedingungen in vielen Regionen der Welt. Wie sich die globale Erwärmung auf die Flora in Deutschland auswirken könnte, haben Forscher nun mit Computermodellen simuliert: Eine gemeinsame Mitteilung des Helmholtz-Zentrums für Umweltforschung (UFZ) und des Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Jede fünfte Pflanzenart in Deutschland könnte bis zum Jahr 2080 Teile ihres heutigen Verbreitungsgebietes verlieren. Das geht aus einer Studie von Wissenschaftlern des Helmholtz-Zentrums für Umweltforschung (UFZ), des Potsdam-Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) und des französischen Laboratoire d’ Ecologie Alpine hervor. Als Folge des Klimawandels werden die Vorkommen der Arten neu verteilt. Dies könnte die Vegetation vor allem im Südwesten und im Osten Deutschlands stark verändern. (more…)

Pioneering research to help biodiversity survive the impacts of climate change across Africa has been announced at a workshop in Kigali, Rwanda and hosted by the Association pour la Conservation de la Nature au Rwanda (BirdLife in Rwanda) on behalf of the BirdLife Africa Partnership. The work brings together the BirdLife Africa Partnership, RSPB, Durham University (UK), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and is funded by the MacArthur Foundation.

The project has mapped the current and future distributions of all bird species on mainland Africa (more…)